Interesting read. I do wonder what % of people that are looked up to and celebrated in the finance world are just the lucky survivors of perfect conditions, and the general public (including myself) can't tell the difference.
To me, outcome bias was most prevalent in the Crypto trading hype of 2020-2022. People would show you how much money they were making, but either (1) I didn't have the knowledge or ability to understand why they were making money or (2) Their logic and risk management was very poor, and they actually just got lucky. Yet, it's hard to argue that someone is making a "poor decision" when there are big $$$ signs flashing across the screen.
Interesting read. I do wonder what % of people that are looked up to and celebrated in the finance world are just the lucky survivors of perfect conditions, and the general public (including myself) can't tell the difference.
To me, outcome bias was most prevalent in the Crypto trading hype of 2020-2022. People would show you how much money they were making, but either (1) I didn't have the knowledge or ability to understand why they were making money or (2) Their logic and risk management was very poor, and they actually just got lucky. Yet, it's hard to argue that someone is making a "poor decision" when there are big $$$ signs flashing across the screen.